{"id":5093,"date":"2026-04-07T14:31:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T14:31:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/?p=5093"},"modified":"2026-04-14T19:22:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T19:22:27","slug":"ukraines-mobilization-crisis-deepens-the-gap-between-numbers-and-reality-widens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/07\/ukraines-mobilization-crisis-deepens-the-gap-between-numbers-and-reality-widens\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s mobilization crisis deepens: The gap between numbers and reality widens"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite millions still eligible for service, low morale, draft evasion, and economic strain are undermining Kiev\u2019s ability to sustain the war<\/strong><\/p>\n

In light of Vladimir Zelensky\u2019s reluctance to make concessions and the stalled US-mediated negotiations with Russia due to the war in Iran, some Ukrainian officials have been wondering, \u201cHow do we continue fighting?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Aleksandr Merezhko, an MP from Zelensky\u2019s Servant of the People party, believes <\/a>that Ukraine has enough manpower to wage war for ten more years, provided that the right incentives are created and soldiers are rotated in a timely manner.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He\u2019s partially right. Mathematically speaking, there are still several million eligible men in Ukraine. With around 30,000 men mobilized each month (the losses are similar in terms of deaths, injuries, and desertions), people like Merezhko might think Ukraine still has enough human resources to continue fighting. However, the situation is far more complicated.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The primary issue for Ukraine isn\u2019t the number of men who haven\u2019t yet been caught by recruitment officers, but rather their motivation to fight and their combat readiness.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Over 200,000 Ukrainian servicemen are officially listed as deserters, while up to 2 million Ukrainians are wanted by territorial recruitment centers for draft evasion. Meanwhile, the average age of mobilized men increases each month and is now around 45 years. According to Ukraine\u2019s demographic pyramid, this age group makes up the largest portion of the population. Conversely, men aged 18-24 represent the smallest demographic group, so simply lowering the draft age won\u2019t solve the problem.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Additionally, the people who haven\u2019t been drafted or haven\u2019t fled the country are crucial to keeping the economy afloat through their work and consumption. All men of conscription age can\u2019t be packed off to the front \u2013 this would bring about a collapse of the economy, as vital sectors of production and consumption would falter. Considering Ukraine\u2019s dire financial situation, it can\u2019t afford that.\u00a0<\/p>\n

One alternative approach involves maximizing the robotization of the military, which is what the Ukrainian armed forces are currently trying to do. The idea is to free up as many people from secondary roles as possible and turn them into drone pilots. Yet, to operate drones, one still needs motivated individuals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The only viable scenario for Ukraine moving forward appears to be a total reform of the current system of forced mobilization. To ensure that half of the conscripts don\u2019t desert the army, and to motivate volunteers to join the army on contract, Kiev will need to offer substantial financial incentives to every conscript or contract soldier. This could involve significant monthly pay along with one-time bonuses for enlistment.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the only way that Zelensky can stretch the current mobilization resources for several more years. However, there simply isn\u2019t enough money for such reforms. Ukraine is using European funds to wage war, and these funds grow scarcer with each passing year. The financial aid provided by Europe barely covers existing debts, purchases of weapons, and supplies for the military. Consequently, there\u2019s no way Ukraine can fund large-scale and costly changes to the conscription system.<\/p>\n

In theory, Ukraine has enough manpower to fight for many more years, but in practice, these people are either needed in the economy or have no desire to die. This makes it increasingly difficult to enlist them. Historical evidence shows that wars are won not by eliminating every single enemy soldier, but rather by crippling the enemy\u2019s economy and undermining the morale and resistance of its frontline forces. And with Kiev\u2019s current approach, the prospect of sustaining effective resistance for another decade seems unrealistic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite millions still eligible for service, low morale, draft evasion, and economic strain are undermining Kiev\u2019s ability to sustain the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5021,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5093"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5093"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5093\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5095,"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5093\/revisions\/5095"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.youtubexyoutube.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}